EU manufacturers could give up competing with China by 2030, a commerce chief warned.
The warning comes amid a record daily trade deficit
Jens Eskelund heads the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China and is also a managing director of Maersk’s Chinese operations. His positions connect the warning to both a European business body based in China and a company operating there. The warning concerns whether EU manufacturers can keep competing with Chinese producers through the end of this decade. It describes a possible retreat by manufacturers, rather than a stated decision by any individual company.¹
The EU’s trade deficit with China is running at a record £1bn (€1.18bn) a day. A deficit measures the gap between the value of imports and exports; stated at a daily rate, this figure gives the imbalance a direct scale. It is a trade measure, distinct from forecasts about economic output or the sales of a single company. Together, those measures offer different ways to assess the pressure surrounding European manufacturers’ competition with China.¹
The EU’s trade deficit with China is running at a record £1bn (€1.18bn) a day.
Forecasts point to different levels of economic pressure
Goldman Sachs forecast that Chinese exports would lower the EU’s gross domestic product by 0.5% by the end of the decade. Gross domestic product, or GDP, measures the value of economic output. The forecast links export competition with a projected change in the EU-wide measure, rather than a specific estimate for an individual manufacturer. It offers a broad economic measure alongside the trade deficit, which tracks the value gap between imports and exports.¹
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Read More →The same forecast put the potential reduction in Germany’s GDP at up to 0.9%. That figure is higher than the forecast for the EU as a whole, and it gives Germany a separate place in the assessment. The two estimates describe projected effects on economic output, not recorded losses. They also do not give a company-by-company breakdown. The figures therefore describe the forecast at two scales: the EU economy and Germany’s economy.¹
Company sales and industrial plans show the competitive landscape
BMW said its sales in China dropped 22% in the first nine months of the year. The company’s figure is a concrete sales measure, distinct from the wider GDP forecasts. It shows a decline in BMW’s China sales over the period BMW specified; it does not by itself quantify the performance of all EU manufacturers. Read alongside the broader trade and output figures, it provides a company-level indicator of the competitive pressures at issue.¹
China’s Made in China strategy was agreed in 2015. The Centre for European Reform has urged Germany to stop “admiring” Beijing and change its strategy. The two points set out a long-running industrial-policy context and a call for a change in Germany’s approach. The recommendation is directed at Germany, while the warning about manufacturers concerns competition between the EU and China. The distinction matters: one is a proposed national response, the other a warning about manufacturers’ ability to compete.¹
China’s next plan names technologies it aims to develop
China’s latest five-year plan covers 2026 to 2030 and identifies AI, quantum computing, robotics, smart and green technology, biomanufacturing, brain-computer interfaces and 6G communications as target sectors. The list spans digital technologies, manufacturing and communications. It makes clear which areas the plan names, rather than offering a measure of the output or market share those sectors will achieve. The planning period also overlaps with the period in the warning about EU manufacturers’ ability to compete.¹
China’s surplus against the rest of the world in 2026 is projected to surpass the 2025 record of $1.2tn (£900bn). The Chinese currency is also described as undervalued by about 30%. These are separate elements of the economic picture: one is a projection comparing annual surpluses, while the other is an estimate of currency value. Neither figure is a direct measure of a European manufacturer’s sales, but both form part of the wider trade and competition concerns surrounding China.¹
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Read More →China’s Made in China strategy was agreed in 2015.
China's tech plan signals skill priorities
China's five-year plan for 2026 to 2030 names AI, quantum computing, robotics, and 6G as target sectors. If you are weighing which technical skill to build, these areas show where state-backed competition will intensify. A role in any of these fields means competing against a market whose currency is undervalued by about 30%, giving Chinese exporters a built-in cost edge. Plan your next certification or project around these domains, not adjacent ones.¹
The EU trade deficit with China runs at a record £1bn a day, and Goldman Sachs forecasts a 0.5% hit to EU GDP by 2030. For a job seeker in manufacturing or export-facing roles, this signals pressure on European employers to cut costs or shift strategy. When negotiating pay, factor in that your employer faces this squeeze. Also consider that BMW's China sales fell 22% in nine months, so roles tied to China sales may face slower growth or restructuring.¹
Sources
Written by Career Ahead AI. AI can make mistakes, so verify key facts. Report errors to support@careeraheadonline.com
