Goldman Sachs projects that generative AI could substitute up to 12% of India's non-farm jobs while enhancing productivity for nearly half of all roles.
Goldman Sachs’ latest research estimates that generative artificial intelligence could substitute 8‑12% of India’s non‑agricultural workforce while complementing 42‑48% of roles. The findings were released in a report dated July 29 2026 and focus on the country’s non‑farm employment across multiple sectors.
The report, issued by Wall Street brokerage Goldman Sachs on Wednesday, July 29 2026, quantifies the potential impact of generative AI (GenAI) on India’s non‑agricultural labor market. It identifies that up to 12% of non‑farm jobs could face substitution, whereas roughly half of all positions may experience productivity gains from AI augmentation.
Goldman Sachs authored the analysis, drawing on internal modeling of AI exposure across occupations. The firm examined data on task composition, AI capability forecasts, and adoption timelines to estimate substitution and complementarity rates. The report highlights that 17% of work in India is currently exposed to AI technologies, with 48% of jobs projected to benefit from AI‑driven productivity enhancements.
Scope of AI Impact Across Indian Industries
The study indicates that the risk of substitution is not uniform across sectors. Healthcare, information technology, education, and financial services are among the industries where GenAI could replace routine tasks, accounting for a portion of the 8‑12% substitution estimate.
Conversely, the same sectors also host a large share of the 42‑48% of jobs that are likely to be complemented by AI. In education, for example, AI tools are expected to support curriculum design and personalized learning, enhancing teacher effectiveness rather than eliminating roles.
In education, for example, AI tools are expected to support curriculum design and personalized learning, enhancing teacher effectiveness rather than eliminating roles.
The report notes that the overall exposure of work to AI—measured by the proportion of tasks that can be automated or augmented—is 17% of the Indian non‑farm labor force. This exposure underpins both the substitution risk and the productivity boost projected for nearly half of all jobs.
Goldman Sachs employed a task‑based approach, mapping AI capabilities to the task composition of occupations identified in national employment surveys. The model assumes a gradual adoption curve for GenAI, with higher uptake in technology‑intensive firms and urban centers.
The substitution range of 8‑12% reflects uncertainty in AI performance, regulatory environments, and firm‑level investment decisions. Complementarity estimates (42‑48%) incorporate scenarios where AI augments human decision‑making, reduces time spent on repetitive activities, and enables new service offerings.
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The analysis also incorporates macro‑economic variables such as GDP growth forecasts and labor market elasticity to assess the broader impact on employment levels. The report does not project net job loss, focusing instead on the reallocation of labor across occupations as AI adoption expands.
Immediate Implications for Students, Educators, and Employers
For students and recent graduates, the findings suggest a need to acquire AI‑related competencies, particularly in data literacy, prompt engineering, and AI‑augmented workflow design. Programs in computer science, analytics, and interdisciplinary studies are likely to see heightened demand.
Immediate Implications for Students, Educators, and Employers For students and recent graduates, the findings suggest a need to acquire AI‑related competencies, particularly in data literacy, prompt engineering, and AI‑augmented workflow design.
Educators are advised to integrate generative AI tools into curricula to prepare learners for AI‑enhanced workplaces. The report highlights that AI can assist in content creation, assessment automation, and personalized feedback, potentially improving educational outcomes while preserving teaching roles.
Employers across the identified sectors are expected to reassess workforce planning. Companies may prioritize reskilling initiatives to shift employees from tasks susceptible to automation toward roles that leverage AI as a collaborative tool. The projected productivity gains for 48% of jobs could translate into higher output per worker, influencing hiring strategies and compensation structures.
Key Facts
What: Goldman Sachs estimates GenAI could replace up to 12% of India’s non‑farm jobs and complement 42‑48% of roles.
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