An advance estimate put US economic growth above economists’ forecasts for the third quarter.
Growth topped forecasts before the midterms
The Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis said in its advance estimate that gross domestic product increased at a 3.4% annualized rate in the third quarter. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 3.2% growth, while Wall Street had forecast 3.1%. Estimates ranged from a 1% growth rate to a 4.2% pace, placing the reported result above both forecasts but within the wider range of expectations.¹²³
The estimate came less than a week before Tuesday’s midterm elections, which will determine control of Congress. The release had also been delayed by the US government shutdown. Its timing put a new measure of economic performance into public view just before voters went to the polls, while the delay meant the figures arrived later than planned.¹³
Analysts point to resilience and household spending The economy recorded its fastest growth in almost three years during the third quarter.
Analysts point to resilience and household spending
The economy recorded its fastest growth in almost three years during the third quarter. The boom in artificial intelligence and strong spending by wealthier Americans helped drive that pace. Aditya Bhave, senior economist at Bank of America, said the economy had “defied doom and gloom expectations basically since the beginning of 2022”. His comment places the latest expansion in a longer stretch of growth that exceeded pessimistic expectations.¹²³
Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, grew at a 3.8% pace in the July-September quarter, matching its rate in the second quarter. The strength came despite economists anticipating a slowdown as average gasoline prices remained above $4 a gallon during the US-Israel war on Iran. Spending therefore remained a major support for growth even as fuel costs stayed high.¹²³
NewsAI Accounts Copy Jokes from Female Comedians
Olivia Carter’s copied joke appeared on an AI avatar account with 214,000 followers, while comedians described stolen material and Instagram’s limits.
Read More →Exports provided another boost: they surged by 7.4% in the quarter after dropping sharply. The increase marked a reversal in that component of the economy, adding to the strength of consumer spending in the overall growth picture. The export figure describes a sharp rebound, while the consumer data show spending holding at its earlier pace.¹²³
Inflation and spending signals remain mixed
The US central bank left its benchmark interest rate in the 3.75%-4% range on Wednesday and acknowledged that inflation “remains elevated”. Fed chairman Kevin Warsh told reporters that “economic activity is expanding at a strong pace”. He also said that “while uncertainty remains, owing in part to geopolitical developments, domestic spending has been resilient”. The remarks paired the bank’s description of firm activity with its warning about inflation.¹²³
The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures price index, rose 2.8% in the three months to September, compared with 2.1% in the previous quarter. The increase shows that inflation remained a concern alongside the reported growth. The figures track price changes over consecutive three-month periods, giving a comparison of how the gauge moved through the quarter.¹²³
Recent indicators offered a more cautious view of household demand. Oliver Allen, senior US economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said some recent surveys and credit card data suggested households were reining in spending. That assessment contrasts with the quarterly spending figure, which held at the previous quarter’s pace, and points to a difference between the growth recorded for July to September and signs in more recent data.¹²³
He also said that “while uncertainty remains, owing in part to geopolitical developments, domestic spending has been resilient”.
Spending Data Points to Stable Demand Roles
Consumer spending held at a 3.8% pace even with gasoline above $4 a gallon, so roles tied to discretionary household purchases remain resilient for now. If you weigh a job in retail, travel, or consumer services, the quarterly figure supports negotiating for a base salary that assumes steady demand rather than a downturn. The export rebound of 7.4% also favors supply-chain, logistics, or trade-facing positions, where the reversal signals renewed activity.¹³
The Fed left rates at 3.75%–4% while inflation ticked up to 2.8%, so borrowing costs stay high and price pressure persists. When you ask for a raise, anchor your request to the 3.4% growth pace and the fastest expansion in almost three years, not to the mixed recent survey signals. Plan for a possible spending slowdown: credit card data already suggests households are reining in, so keep an emergency fund sized to a three-month income gap.¹²³
Sources
- theguardian.com — https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/oct/29/economy-growth-third-quarter
- morningstar.com — https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20261029111/us-economy-grows-at-fastest-pace-in-almost-three-years-third-quarter-gdp-shows
- bbc.com — https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c62n9ynzrdpo
NewsBudget Pairs Winter Relief with Wider State Ambitions
Household borrowing and mortgage costs are forecast to rise as revenue and spending decisions face scrutiny.
Read More →Written by Career Ahead AI. AI can make mistakes, so verify key facts. Report errors to support@careeraheadonline.com
